• 4 Posts
  • 38 Comments
Joined 6 months ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • Many key European rulers are US loyal/agents, as demonstrated by Ukraine war support, and tolerance for extortion/infrastructure terrorism by Biden administration. Subjugating their people to US rule is the goal of some of these rulers.

    OTOH,

    1. There is a strong boycott/hatred of US movement among population.
    2. Trump/US cannot be trusted on any deal. Further subjugation to evil empire is lock in into evil and forced acceptance of further demands.
    3. War on Russia enthusiasm as a full employment measure only makes sense with domestic weapons.
    4. Significant EU investment in Chinese auto market
    5. Airbus can take over Chinese market from Boeing. Similarly, western heavy equipment alternatives can replace Deere and Caterpillar in Chinese market.
    6. If US deprives itself from ASEAN/China consumer goods and electronics, that makes them even cheaper for Europe, and it is not a particularly desirable employment opportunity in Europe either.
    7. US empire aligned social media/LLM/news media is a major profit extraction engine from Europe through services, and EU’s ability to tax/fine these is revenue and resistance over their subjugation.
    8. Greenland coveting is exclusively for purposes of enhancing war threats to Europe. Certain further subjugation.
    9. US/Israel evil on middle east and global warming is designed to raise emigration to Europe, destruction of economy, and far right reactionism in EU to promote Trump-like stupidity of policy “solutions”.
    10. Pharma tariffs are not a big deal for EU companies, as production costs are pennies per pill, and a US shell company can buy them for pennies per pill and mark them up. EU tax revenue takes a hit though, and needs adjustment policies.
    11. Chinese energy (solar) is not just a global warming solution, it is cheaper and secure (no need for fuel supply chains) energy that has up to 90% local costs/jobs for deploying the energy. Europe has leadership in Hydrogen electrolysis which is key to 100% global reenwable energy production.
    12. Russia is objectively less of an enemy than US. Can provide Europe with everything the US can. Auto market can get bigger than US, with a tendency to favour ICE engines with EU expertise.

    The free (independent and unsubjugated) world is far better off economically to stay free, or join the free side. Trade with China is already a bigger partner than US for most countries in the world. Canada and Mexico are somewhat forced to anchor themselves to a sinking US ship, but Europe must resist a US enemy, and benefit from economic destruction of US, where its capital can then buy the ashes cheaply. Far more to gain from closer Asian cooperation, and participation in China led development of global south.

    The worst repercussion of locking into a slaved vs free world is it significantly increases risk of war, and of civilization ending war.



  • Vietnam GDP doubled from 2008 to 2013, and doubled again by 2023. It has no debt. FDI has grown just as fast, and dominated by Asian countries. It imports twice what it exports from/to China, and its Chinese imports match its US exports. Exports are almost equal to GDP (though imports almost as high, and close to net 0 effect on GDP).

    Like all neighbour countries, their best options for prosperity is close ties with “anchor neighbour”. Only corruption could cause it to become Ukraine/Philippines-like thorn in Asia.

    Of the deal discussion in OP, it looks like Boeing will get shut out of Vietnam.





  • My theory on tipping points with ocean to air temperatures is that El ninos cause a step up in air temperatures now. This happened in 2015/2016, where air temperatures stayed above 2015 levels every year afterwards, even if 2016 record stayed up for a long period. 2023/2024 was another step up. Ocean and air temperatures help each other set summer records, and that ocean heat persists into fall/winter to help moderate winter air temperatures, that makes spring have a head start on new summer records, or at least keep the new el-nino set baseline, until another step up the next el-nino.



  • Global warming has a slower effect on the oceans than in air temperatures, yet we’ve passed a tipping point where many sea regions are consistently 3C warmer than pre-industrial era, and they are helping air temperatures set records too. Even since 2016, summer tropical North Atlantic ocean has been over 2C warmer than 2016. This region is also called “hurricane alley”, and ocean heat has an exponential effect on hurricane strength.