• 2 Posts
  • 11 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • If you make it to Medicare age, it gets a lot less stressful. eg: my folks have had 4 knees replaced with very little out-of-pocket cost. There’s still supplemental insurance, but Medicare, not the profit-driven insurance company, determines what gets covered, and they mostly listen to doctors. There’s always edge cases, where some treatment might not be covered, but I feel like those are uncommon.

    One way or the other, my ultimate health care plan is 9mm.


  • Living overseas, I’d say your biggest worry should be the strength of the US dollar - strong dollar, lots of local currency; weak dollar, less local currency.

    The dollar gets a lot of its historical strength from the combination of big country untouched by wartime destruction and being the global reserve currency. Being the reserve currency is a huge but hard to quantify factor, because it means that every major agent on the planet buys dollars, even if they don’t want to buy or sell goods in the US. It’s the reason the dollar gets stronger during global crises. China and Russia have tried for years to shake that reserve currency status and get the world to shift to something else for denominating international deals. Basket of BRIC currencies. Renminbi. Even Euros. Current administration’s isolationism may help those efforts, but it would be an enormous international reconfiguration to make that big a change, and isn’t likely to happen because of one four-year administration.

    US inflation will tend to devalue the dollar - inflation and exchange rate are kind-of correlated, over relatively short time periods, but economic growth is more important over the long term.





  • A target date fund on that horizon is going to be shifting its assets from stocks into bonds and TIPS, but is still going to have most of the volatility of VTSAX. If you’re comfortable with the possibility of having negative return over 5 years, then you might as well VTSAX. If you need for the savings to grow, then you probably want less stock exposure than a future target date fund.

    For reference, the historical 5-year return on US stocks is anywhere from +30% to -10%, annualized. Even over 10 years, you’ve got about 1-in-8 chance of losing money. I mean, the stock market is definitely the best way for most people to grow money over time, and the economy looks pretty good right now, but Time is definitely doing the heavy lifting, and almost no one ever forsees the event(s) that trigger crises. 5 years is pretty short term.


  • The Android app should still be fine. I’d expect Apple’s move to be followed by a lot of creators adding a “Don’t use the iOS Patreon app” to their profiles.

    I mean, apps that are just the website are a bad idea in the first place, but this specific problem is entirely contained to the iOS app. If some people prefer an app to a bookmark, that’s on them.



  • You can’t use house #1 as the collateral for both the mortgage on house #1 and house #2, because the bank is smart enough to know that you don’t actually own house #1. If house #1 has appreciated significantly from the purchase price, or you have paid off a good chunk of the mortgage, you may have enough equity to take a loan (eg home equity line of credit / HELOC) on that equity to get down-payment money for a second house. That’s generally a slow process, unless you happen to own property in a market bubble.



  • I think about the Vision like I think about a new Gucci bag or a new set of Air Jordans. There’s a small, but very visible, community that is super into that product, probably for reasons not related to its actual functionality. The difference is that there’s a lot of overlap between Apple fans and broader technology enthusiast groups, where we’re more isolated from the Gucci and Jordan communities. There are lots of brand-based fan groups who will happily accept branded merch or content, but not interpret that as ‘advertising.’

    The rest of the world tolerates spyware and especially ads if they feel like the product is worth the intrusion. There’s a reason Meta doesn’t have a logo watermark foating in the corner of Quest view field. There’s a reason VR is still very niche, almost entirely limited to gaming.

    Maybe Vision’s AR experience will change that. Maybe viewing your entire life through a video camera with overlaid graphics has real-world value beyond privacy in co-working spaces. I doubt that value is $3000 and think Vision is more like Apple’s Newton than Apple’s iPhone.