This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
I guess my question is, supposing this analysis is on point, what would be the end goal? Provoke China into a war? It’s not like China is gonna sit there passively forever and Iran is far from passive themselves. And to my understanding, China’s dependency on energy imports is a lot less than some of the US’s own allies, with a lot more resiliency in things like solar and so on. Also, IIRC, when the US tried to cripple China on computer chip stuff, China adapted and used what it had on hand more efficiently. It’s hard to imagine them being able to do much about China’s trajectory at this point without bombing it and China is more than capable militarily to fend them off if it comes to that. So is it simply desperation or is there something I’m not seeing here?
Well, the most perceivable end goal that I see from his analysis is to inform regular people. As for China, I have seen in XHS people talking about the gas prices and some others being happy about their EVs.
Regarding China’s dependency, it is still important for the analysis. Let me use a small graph from 2025 to contextualize this.
If we add Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq; we get a total of 31.7%. Now, we are missing to add the Venezuelan(4% aprox according to Reuters) and Iranian oil(13.4% aprox according to Reuters) to the mix to see how much is the total of oil that is no longer being shipped to China to see the total impact. Using this percentage for each respectively, we get a total of 49.1%. That’s a serious impact.
However, just like you, I am confident that China will be able to bypass this.
Sorry, I meant the end goal of the US blockade, not the end goal of the analysis, I should have clarified that. But thank you for the further context on this, that does indeed sound significant and I will look at it more closely tomorrow. 🙏