This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).

Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.

Previous megathread

  • freagle@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
    12·
    4 days ago

    It’s a game of chicken right now. The frozen conflict can wreak havoc on domestic stability in Iran if it goes on too long and if the imperialists find ways to tighten the siege (like the blockade). At the same time, the oil situation is dangerous for the US. Yes, the US has strategic reserves to ride this out a little bit. Yes the US can buffer with Venezuelan oil and other sources. But these things can only go so far. Other commodities like helium and fertilizer will also cause huge problems for the US.

    But the US has the greatest ability of the many parties involved to obtain things they need. So the US is probably calculating that they can win the game of chicken. I don’t think they believe they can open the straight via force. They know that Iran can mine the waterway and that guerilla fighters could maintain unacceptable threat levels. So I actually don’t think the US will resume hostilities.

    I do think Israel is trying to take advantage of the fact that Iran cannot safely extend itself to defend the entire region or risk exposing major vulnerabilities to US attacks. For now I think this is the real threat - Israeli expansion in the region.

    I am curious as to what will come from the meeting between Xi and Putin this week. Watching what changes in Ukraine after this meeting will give us some insight into how well China is weathering the resource crisis

    • Rylo@lemmygrad.ml
      7·
      4 days ago

      I agree that in material costs the US is in a better position to wait it out - however, most of the wars waged by amerikkka throughout history have ended due to mounting domestic political cost. What is interesting now is that alot of former alies of the US regime are turning against it publicly, so it might be that even if they could win the game of chicken in theory - it is too high of a cost politically.

      I agree that Israel seems to have accelerated their expansionist project, it is very interesting to see politicians in my region (EU) continue to try and justify it. I wonder if this will be the final nail in the coffin for the perceived “humane & liberal values” that the broader western conscious still attributes our states. (obviously most organized people now it’s a sham, but you’d be surprised the shift that has occured in the minds of the general un-organized populace these last few years)