This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
From Brian Berletic:
🇺🇸/IRAN - Is the US Blockade on Iran Working?
I fully understand what people are saying about the US blockade “failing” based on claims by both the US Navy and the US government itself.
The US Navy and US gov are saying they have completely stopped maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Analysts are saying this is false - and they are right.
HOWEVER… looking at the same data presented along with these claims- while the US has failed to fully stop Iranian exports - it has just about halved them.
CENTCOM says they’ve turned away around 30 ships and has seized at least 2 more.
Western media claims have admitted around or perhaps more than 30 ships have passed through the blockade.
Some might say halving Iranian energy exports is not a big deal and that Iran could survive this. That is likely true - but there is a bigger picture to consider.
Zooming Out in Both Time and Space
If you zoom out and look at oil/gas exports from both Iran and the entire Middle East to China - you can see the trend taking shape - the slow and approaching near total strangulation of energy exports to China.
These graphs show (based on Western media claims) Iranian oil exports, Middle East oil exports, and Middle East gas exports to China at 3 points - pre-war, the “ceasefire,” and the implementation of the ongoing US blockade on Iran.
As I said before the war started, and as soon as the US called up the USMC MEU - the goal was and is now obviously to close off all energy exports from the Middle East to China - and that is what the data shows.
Of course the US also seeks to harm and ultimately topple Iran - but it is also pursuing this other much higher priority - undermining China.
It is being done incrementally and it is clearly succeeding so far.
China has prepared to weather this blockade - but it is not certain whether they are prepared to challenge or break the blockade itself.
The Realistic Nature of Blockades
It is also important to understand that blockades are not switches that are either completely on or completely off - or static in nature.
Throughout history blockades are announced and imposed - often incrementally - and then tested by those being blockaded resulting in fluctuations over time in terms of efficacy.
There will be efforts to circumvent or break the blockade by Iran and its allies, and there will be attempts by the US to adapt to and overcome these efforts.
Based on superficial daily “noise” from US President Trump and CENTCOM - the US blockade has “failed.”
Based on data regarding pre-war, post-ceasefire, and post-US blockade energy exports from the region - the blockade is most certainly succeeding in driving energy exports from the region to China toward zero.
Yet the US is by no means in an unassailable position.
It is simply capitalizing on operational momentum and initiative - plenty has been done by the multipolar world to prepare for precisely this scenario and it remains to be seen whether or not US momentum and initiative is enough to overcome these preparations.
There are many numbers floating out there - so I will share some others with you - before the conflict oil from the entire region in barrels per day were estimated to be as high as 6.5 million - now down to around 4.5 million today.
That number includes Iranian oil.
The amount of Iranian oil getting through will depend on how many tankers are actually making it all the way to China vs. those turned backed or seized by the US.
There are no alternative numbers for gas - most sources agree gas shipments are nearly completely shut down from the Middle East to China.
Map to contextualize what is happening:
Source -> https://xcancel.com/BrianJBerletic/status/2047175377357856963#m
I guess my question is, supposing this analysis is on point, what would be the end goal? Provoke China into a war? It’s not like China is gonna sit there passively forever and Iran is far from passive themselves. And to my understanding, China’s dependency on energy imports is a lot less than some of the US’s own allies, with a lot more resiliency in things like solar and so on. Also, IIRC, when the US tried to cripple China on computer chip stuff, China adapted and used what it had on hand more efficiently. It’s hard to imagine them being able to do much about China’s trajectory at this point without bombing it and China is more than capable militarily to fend them off if it comes to that. So is it simply desperation or is there something I’m not seeing here?
Well, the most perceivable end goal that I see from his analysis is to inform regular people. As for China, I have seen in XHS people talking about the gas prices and some others being happy about their EVs.
Regarding China’s dependency, it is still important for the analysis. Let me use a small graph from 2025 to contextualize this.
If we add Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq; we get a total of 31.7%. Now, we are missing to add the Venezuelan(4% aprox according to Reuters) and Iranian oil(13.4% aprox according to Reuters) to the mix to see how much is the total of oil that is no longer being shipped to China to see the total impact. Using this percentage for each respectively, we get a total of 49.1%. That’s a serious impact.
However, just like you, I am confident that China will be able to bypass this.
Sorry, I meant the end goal of the US blockade, not the end goal of the analysis, I should have clarified that. But thank you for the further context on this, that does indeed sound significant and I will look at it more closely tomorrow. 🙏
Do I smell some weirdly arrogant undertones here, or is it just me?
Hmm, I haven’t sensed any arrogant undertones.
Although, I do sense frustration because his audience or the people that he is getting feedback from are not understanding his analysis.
Yeah, that is the sense i get from most of his analyses too. He is frustrated and has a bit of a pessimistic (but still realistic) streak because so much of his analysis predicting the US empire would get more aggressive as it declines has come true.
But what we also have to remember is that he is not a communist. He may have very good analysis grounded in reality, but he is lacking the revolutionary optimism of a Marxist-Leninist.
That makes a difference in how someone is able to emotionally process all of this.
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